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Scientists from Oxford and Warsaw Universities have found new evidence that shifts the timeline regarding the fall of the Roman Empire and offers more insight into what actually caused the mighty civilization to collapse.
Knewz.com has learned that the latest research challenges the recently suggested notion that the Eastern Roman Empire perished as a result of the Late Antique Little Ice Age and the Justinianic Plague during the end of the 6th Century.
According to the prevalent theory, the Eastern Roman Empire was weakened by these two significant climate and disease factors, as a result of which it could not put up much of a fight against the Persians and Arabs in the first half of the 7th Century.
However, the research conducted by Lev Cosijns from the University of Oxford and Haggai Olshanetsky from the University of Warsaw concluded that these assumptions are "inherently incorrect."
The research, published in the journal Klio, mentions that there are "vast amounts of evidence, including archaeological survey data, settlement patterns, shipwreck analyses, pottery distribution in the Mediterranean and other material" that indicate the Eastern Roman Empire was not in decline in the 6th Century.
On the contrary, it suggests that the empire was actually at its peak, with regard to population, towards the end of the century—a claim supported by "evidence from micro and macro-scale data from throughout the Mediterranean."
Cosijns and Olshanetsky wrote in the introduction to their paper, "The current article wishes to answer these researchers by showing that there was no decline in the 6th c. CE, and that no late 6th c. CE crisis and decline occurred. In addition, it will be suggested that the Eastern Roman Empire was at the peak of its power and population at the end of the 6th c. CE."
The research team discovered a total of 16,148 pieces of pottery traded by the Roman Empire during the late 6th and early 7th centuries in the city of Nessana located in the southwest Negev desert in Israel.
The discovery of the numerous "pottery shards" proves that the Roman Empire was thriving during the said period.
It is worth noting that the team of researchers also found that there was a sharp increase in the number of pottery shards dating to the years after 550 A.D., indicating an "increase in the industrial capacity and prosperity of the region."
Cosijns, from the University of Oxford, said in a statement, "It seems that 536 CE was not the worst year to be alive... It was a terrible period for people living in Scandinavia."
"But for people who lived in the eastern Roman Empire, there were limited effects, and so life went on as usual," he added.
As for why the mighty empire collapsed, the scientists suggested that it simply perished in war with the Persians and the Arabs as a result of trade and military failures.
In order to prove this theory, the research team pulled shipwreck records from Harvard University and the Oxford Roman Economy Project (OXREP) database.
"The use of this type of data implements a method that has recently been applied in different studies... This method assumes that the number of shipwrecks has statistical significance, and greater amounts of maritime traffic are reflected in higher numbers of shipwrecks in certain periods," the paper published in Kilo explained.
According to reports, the team analyzed shipwrecks throughout the Mediterranean from multiple sites, like Marseille, Naples, Carthage, eastern Spain, and Alexandria.
"As the number of ships in use increases, so does the probability that some of them will sink due to storms and other calamities. Generally, the comparison of the number of shipwrecks between half-centuries and centuries is considered acceptable and common, and is an important tool in understanding the volume of sea-borne trade," the paper further mentioned.
While the number of Roman shipwrecks stayed consistent between 200 and 300 during the 2nd Century CE, there was a sharp decline of almost 50% in shipwreck numbers by the end of the 5th Century.
"The reason for such a severe reduction was most probably due to the fall of the Western Roman Empire in the late 5th century," the research team said.
The numbers declined further by the second half of the 7th Century, dropping to 67—indicating that the trade routes of the empire were being cut off.
"This decline was most probably an outcome of the Persian war, and the Islamic conquest shortly after, which deprived Constantinople of most of the territories that were previously under the rule of the Eastern Roman Empire," the researchers said.
With the trade routes having collapsed, the population of the Eastern Roman Empire was forced to flee to other regions, and the territory fell at the hands of the Persians and the Arabs, the research explained.