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Nate Silver, a prominent election analyst, forecasts that the impending clash between former President Donald Trump and Joe Biden will not be a “toss-up”.
Knewz.com has learned that according to Silver’s model, Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning while the possibility of Biden winning, currently sits at a mere 33.7%.
Silver's Silver Bulletin substantiated his findings with 40,000 simulations, whereafter it was found that Biden could beat Trump by a tenth of a percentage (47.2% to 47.1%).
An area where Trump’s popularity trounced that of Bidens was in the Electoral College, according to Silver’s model. Here the embattled former president beats the current democratic frontrunner by 17 votes.
Using these two results in the context of each other, Silver observed that “if the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied.”
“[I]f Biden loses Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania,” Silver’s observations continued.
“In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54[%] of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32[%] of simulations. This is the sort of precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t.”
Silver further noted that America’s elections were not determined by popular vote and cautioned: “It would be easy to overstate the case, however. Trump does still lead[s] in our national average — however narrowly.”
“The bigger problem for Biden though is that elections in the United States aren’t determined by the popular vote.”
“His current popular-vote disadvantage is modest — modest enough that a couple more polls like the recent Fox News national poll could be enough to put him ahead.”
Silver claims that his model does take into consideration the benefit of Biden already being in office.
“The fundamentals part of our model — which in the case of the Silver Bulletin, just means the economy and incumbency — slightly helps Biden.”
Silver’s opinion however is not subscribed to by everyone, and dissent hails from an unexpected quarter.
Opinion poll FiveThirtyEight - founded by Silver in March 2008, before he left it in 2003 - in an article published on June 25, claimed that the Biden-Trump stand-off was geared to be a “pure toss-up.”
The company executed 1,000 simulations and found that Biden was projected as the winner 501 times while Trump came out on top 496 times.
These projections come hours ahead of the first 2024 presidential debate scheduled for June 27.
Another poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research noted that the event is expected to enjoy a broad viewership with six in ten adults claiming they will be “extremely” or “very” likely to watch the event, per Associated Press.