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Russia has upped its hostile rhetoric against the Western allies of Ukraine and intensified threats of nuclear attack in response to the United States' authorization to the embattled nation to use American ATACMS to attack targets deep within Vladimir Putin's territory.
However, Knewz.com has learned that an actual nuclear attack by Russia is "unlikely," according to U.S. intelligence.
Over a week prior, Russian President Putin made a very public response to Ukraine's first attacks on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied missiles—by signing a doctrine that lowered the threshold for a nuclear response to any attack on his territory.
Professor Yuri Zhdanov, the Head of the Department of International Law at the Russian State Social University, said in a statement that the West has opened nuclear weapons “Pandora's box” in Russia with their decisions against the nation over the course of the Ukraine war.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying in this regard, "What is the most striking example of the realities of the modern day? Authority in the White House, in the United States takes a decision to use their weapons, American-produced weapons, against the Russian Federation."
"We needed that update, we ensured this," Peskov added, referencing the updated nuclear doctrine of Russia.
The updated nuclear doctrine, entitled Foundations of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence, claims, according to reports:
"Nuclear weapons (NW) are an extreme measure to protect the sovereignty of the country. At the same time, due to the emergence of new military threats and risks, Russia needed to clarify the parameters that allow the use of NW."
Regarding the new doctrine – which was updated from the June 2020 version – the Russian state news agency TASS wrote:
"In particular, the amended doctrine expands the range of countries and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence, as well as the list of military threats that such deterrence is designed to counter. In addition, the document states that Russia will now view any attack by a non-nuclear country supported by a nuclear power as a joint attack."
"Moscow also reserves the right to consider a nuclear response to a conventional weapons attack threatening its sovereignty, a large-scale launch of enemy aircraft, missiles, and drones targeting Russian territory, their crossing of the Russian border, and an attack on its ally Belarus," the news agency further explained.
On the other hand, sources familiar with U.S. intelligence have recently spoken to Reuters, saying that "intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded nuclear escalation was unlikely to result from a decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons."
"The assessments were consistent: The ATACMS weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus," an anonymous Congressional aide familiar with the matter said in a statement to the outlet.
It has been pointed out that officials in the U.S. had initially advised against President Joe Biden's proposal to loosen the restrictions placed on U.S.-supplied weapons to Ukraine out of fears of how Putin would respond.
However, President Biden finally issued the authorization to Ukraine as a response to North Korean troops joining the Russian war efforts.
The U.S. officials who spoke to Reuters regarding possible Russian escalations said that while Putin might not immediately seek to escalate with its nuclear forces, he would "try to match what it views as U.S. escalation."
For instance, Russia recently unveiled a new ballistic missile—a move analysts believe is meant to be a threat to the U.S. and the European allies of Ukraine.
In addition, U.S. intelligence believes that Russia is likely to carry out a series of sabotage attacks across Europe. According to a report from October, sabotage attacks carried out under Russian directives have "skyrocketed" since the beginning of 2024, and are being seen as Putin's response to Europe's continuing support for Ukraine.
The report further mentioned that Russia has been "recruiting" individuals across Europe to carry out these attacks in their own countries—in return for payments of up to $10,000 worth of cryptocurrency.
The orders passed down by these Russian "recruiters" do not just involve sabotage, but include a range of acts, like "spying on military bases, setting fire to vehicles, and even murder," according to reports.
Experts have labeled Russia's "covert retaliation" against Europe a cause for significant concern while adding that the threat of a nuclear escalation is still very much on the table, although the concerns were reportedly "overblown."
Referring to Russia's increasing sabotage attacks across Europe, Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University, said in a statement:
"Russia's hybrid response is a concern... The chance of escalation was never not there. The concern now is greater."